Try to read some interviews: They say I take the risk of dying on a boat before staying where I am with no perspective and probable death as well. People traffickers offer rides to Europe on Facebook. They organize all transportation, say, from Somalia, through Egypt and Libya plus the boat to Italy and then on to Germany or similar. The ride is rough. People die in the desert; they are kidnapped by extremists for ransom, kept in prisons in Libya until they pay the bribe. They may be abandoned at sea, or drown when boats sink. Then treated badly in Europe, but better than anywhere else.
So, still they come. Hundreds of thousands, so dire is the situation at home. They sell their business; the family chips in all they have. Start-ups of some sort. The strongest, the most courageous. Mostly too uneducated to prosper here.
No one comes to enjoy democracy, the reason is economic. Remember the Irish a century ago: A crop disease killed potatoes and the country was starving. Those who could emigrated to the US. Empty and welcoming at the time, that s the difference with the EU now, full and hostile.
But the motives were the same!
How do we react?
The naïve say let us improve the situation at home so no one needs to come. This means trillions not billions of euros to occupy and pacify and impose our rules of law etc. We will not be welcome there.
Many academics say: We need hundreds of thousands per year to stabilize our declining populations. They are the kids we did not bear ourselves. If we educate them and open opportunities, like we do for our own kids, it could work and cost only billions. Hostile democracies will not allow this, so this is a no-go.
Politicians now come with two policies: distribute fairly among all countries and stop boats as they leave. Possibly bomb the smugglers and their boats.
Most countries will reject the first idea of fair distribution. Their populations will vote NO next time. Germany and a few others like it since they now take in most refugees and would get less. Anyway, refugees assigned to e.g. Bulgaria will take the next bus to Berlin anyway.
The second idea is illegal. Yet, Realpolitik can overcome this: See annexation of Crimea.
Send back the boats looks the most appealing. It would be a strong disincentive to book a trip to Europe. Sending boats back to Libya could actually work. There is no government in the country.
Well one, we officially recognize, but it has no power whatsoever. So treading on their feet would have no consequences. Build a few camps there and bribe them to be ‘allowed’ to could work. Quite a cheap option. Also destroy every boat you can find.
It would seriously reduce the numbers and be relatively cheap.
At the same time, churn out massive propaganda about how tough Europe actually is. All refugees check the news, BBC and others. They are aware of the dangers of crossing, but see such a good life in EU that they take the risk. Propaganda can change this.
This will work mainly for Libya where there is no government. Obviously the Facebook trafficker entrepreneurs who arrange trips will find alternatives and the price of the trips will go up a lot.
Still the numbers of travellers will go down a lot.