The Irish border is subject of a treaty that was signed by the UK, the EU and others (I do not know the details) and stipulates that the border between Northern Ireland (belongs to UK) and Ireland must remain open with no border checks. It ended a civil war.
When the UK leaves, that border becomes the EU frontier and border checks are inevitable….unless the UK stays somehow inside the Customs Union and Single Market, the two most beneficial instruments for the immense wealth increase that we all witnessed over the past decades.
That is what the Theresa May deal brings.
A potentially unlimited transition period would follow while UK and EU negotiate and find a technical or other solution that avoids border controls. This is a BINO, a Brexit-In-Name-Only.
Obviously, a real Brexiteer hates the deal. It would inflict some pain, but not that much. A Remainer also hates that deal.
If this deal is rejected in Parliament, essentially a no-deal Brexit follows. This would completely ruin the UK as a whole. Nobody can want this. This is why I believe that the deal WILL pass a parliamental vote, at first or second try. This is also why the announced no-confidence-vote to depose May has not come to pass.
The only two alternatives are Theresa May’s deal or Remain.
After voting in favour of the deal, the EU can vote as well. Maybe a people’s vote will come and allow UK to formally remain.
If not, after the BINO Brexit, negotiations start, going nowhere. At the same time Brexiteers and Remainers will sneer at each other, campaign, what ever…and thus ensure that the negotiations go nowhere forever. A general election will most likely come, yet change little.
Prominent Brexiteers disappear in the fantasyland they created, the media will report more balanced. Core leave-voting population will feel even more left out and vote UKIP.
Interesting times.